Despite ongoing diplomatic efforts, the United States and Israel are struggling to contain a widening regional crisis. Iran continues to disrupt oil and gas shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and has maintained missile and drone strikes across the region, intensifying global energy concerns.
Trump has indicated a desire to avoid a prolonged conflict, privately signaling interest in limiting the war’s duration to four to six weeks. However, officials suggest that timeline may be uncertain. At the same time, he has warned of possible escalation if negotiations fail.
A proposed 15-point peace plan, reportedly conveyed to Tehran through Pakistan, reflects efforts to find a diplomatic exit. Still, analysts remain skeptical about the feasibility of a deal, citing disagreements over key demands, including Iran’s nuclear and missile programmes.
Experts say Trump’s options remain limited. Jonathan Panikoff noted that the lack of clarity around a desired end state complicates efforts to resolve the conflict. Meanwhile, officials maintain that the campaign will continue until US objectives are achieved.
The administration has also increased military deployments in the region, signaling readiness for further escalation, including the potential use of ground forces. Analysts warn that such steps could deepen US involvement and risk a drawn-out conflict.
One scenario under consideration involves a major air operation to weaken Iran’s military capabilities, after which Washington could declare its objectives met. However, such a move may fall short if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, a key factor affecting global oil supply.
Domestically, pressure is mounting on Trump. Public opinion polls show declining support for the war, with approval ratings reportedly dropping to 36%. Concerns are also growing among Republican lawmakers ahead of upcoming elections, as economic impacts—particularly rising fuel prices—affect voters.
Iran’s continued resistance has further complicated the situation. Analysts suggest Tehran may aim to outlast its adversaries, using its control over key shipping routes as leverage. Jon Alterman noted that Iran appears prepared to endure sustained pressure.
Diplomatic efforts face additional hurdles as Iranian leadership remains cautious, especially following past incidents where negotiations coincided with military action. Meanwhile, Israel has expressed concern that any US concessions could limit its operational flexibility.
Regional allies have also warned against deploying US ground troops, fearing broader instability and retaliation against critical infrastructure.
As the conflict evolves, Trump’s mixed signals—alternating between calls for diplomacy and threats of escalation—have added uncertainty to the crisis. Analysts, including Laura Blumenfeld, say this approach may be aimed at keeping adversaries off-balance, but it also risks prolonging instability in an already volatile region.
