Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan activated their air defence networks after Iran launched another wave of attacks, which Tehran said were aimed at US military installations.
The latest escalation followed renewed US strikes on Iran’s southern coast, including areas near Qeshm Island and the port cities of Bandar Abbas, Sirik, and Jask.
The confrontation comes less than a month after Washington and Tehran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending a war that began on February 28 after Israel and the United States launched attacks on Iran. Both sides have since accused each other of violating the agreement, with tensions now increasingly focused on the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
Gulf States Face a Security Dilemma
The renewed attacks have exposed a major dilemma for US allies in the Gulf. While American military bases make these countries potential targets for Iranian retaliation, the US military presence also provides advanced protection against missile and drone attacks.
Experts say the key question is whether Gulf air defence systems can withstand a sustained Iranian campaign if tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate further.
Iran has claimed that its attacks are aimed at US military positions rather than Gulf countries. However, Iranian missiles and drones have entered Gulf airspace, causing damage and civilian injuries.
Qatar reported that three people, including a child, were injured by falling debris after an Iranian missile was intercepted.
How Strong Are Gulf Air Defences?
Gulf countries have invested heavily in advanced air defence systems over decades, combining American, European, and other international technologies.
Saudi Arabia operates one of the region’s largest defence networks, including US-made THAAD and Patriot PAC-3 systems. The UAE also uses THAAD and Patriot systems, along with Israel’s Barak air defence platform.
Qatar has invested in Patriot missile batteries and NASAMS III systems, while Kuwait relies on Patriot PAC-3 systems and other short-range defence systems.
Bahrain has recently acquired upgraded Patriot systems, whereas Oman operates systems including NASAMS and French Mistral missiles.
However, experts warn that no air defence system is completely impenetrable, especially during prolonged conflicts involving large numbers of missiles and drones.
The Cost of Fighting Cheap Drones
One of Iran’s major advantages is its use of relatively inexpensive drones, including Shahed-type systems, which can threaten infrastructure without requiring expensive weapons.
Many Iranian drones reportedly cost tens of thousands of dollars, while advanced interceptor missiles used to destroy them can cost millions. Analysts say this creates a financial challenge for Gulf countries and the US, as they may be forced to spend expensive missiles against cheaper incoming threats.
“The biggest challenge is capacity,” experts say, as sustained attacks could drain interceptor supplies and place pressure on military personnel and logistics.
Can Gulf States Defend Themselves Without the US?
The crisis has accelerated efforts among Gulf countries to improve cooperation, including sharing radar information, coordinating warning systems, and developing more integrated defence networks.
Experts say Gulf states are also exploring ways to reduce dependence on a single security partner by expanding defence cooperation with countries such as Pakistan, South Korea, Ukraine, and European nations.
Saudi Arabia’s mutual defence agreement with Pakistan is one example of expanding regional security partnerships.
However, analysts say geography leaves Gulf countries with little choice but to maintain some form of relationship with Iran. ‘The Gulf states cannot change geography. They have to live and work alongside Iran,’ analysts noted.
Economic Risks of a Prolonged Conflict
Beyond security concerns, the conflict threatens Gulf economies, particularly because restrictions around the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt oil and gas exports.
Countries including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar are especially vulnerable because many of their energy export facilities depend on access through the strategic waterway. Analysts say no country in the region can afford another long war, as prolonged instability could damage trade, investment, tourism, and energy markets.
Diplomacy Remains the Preferred Option
Despite recent attacks, Gulf states have generally preferred diplomacy over direct confrontation with Iran. Qatar and Oman have played key roles in mediation efforts between Tehran and Washington and continue to push for a diplomatic solution.
Experts say the biggest question now is whether the current escalation marks the beginning of a longer conflict or is another temporary confrontation before negotiations resume.
