According to the PMD’s three-month outlook, the Indian Ocean Dipole is currently in a neutral phase and is expected to gradually shift towards a positive phase later in the season. At the same time, warming sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean indicate the development of El Niño conditions, which are generally associated with reduced rainfall over Pakistan.
The department said these warming conditions are expected to persist throughout the July-September period and may strengthen further as the season progresses. Although a positive Indian Ocean Dipole is usually linked to slightly above-normal monsoon rainfall in Pakistan, the PMD noted that its expected late onset may limit its overall impact on seasonal precipitation.
The forecast indicates a broad tendency towards normal to below-normal rainfall across much of the country. The smallest rainfall deficits are expected in northeastern Punjab and adjoining areas. Most regions, including Punjab, Sindh, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and large parts of Balochistan, are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.
In contrast, Gilgit-Baltistan, Kashmir and upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are expected to receive normal to slightly above-normal rainfall during the period.
The PMD also forecast above-normal temperatures across the country, with the highest temperature departures likely in northeastern Punjab and eastern Gilgit-Baltistan. Most weather models favour warmer-than-normal conditions across Pakistan, particularly in Punjab, southern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, eastern Balochistan and western Sindh.
The department warned that near-normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in northern regions could increase the risk of flash floods and landslides, particularly in mountainous and flood-prone areas. Urban flooding is also possible in major cities across the country during periods of intense rainfall.
Higher temperatures in Gilgit-Baltistan, upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Kashmir may accelerate snowmelt, leading to increased river flows and raising the risk of glacial lake outburst floods in vulnerable areas.
The PMD said below-normal rainfall could create water stress for major Kharif crops, including sugarcane, rice, cotton and maize, increasing dependence on irrigation. The report also warned of a possible rise in vector-borne diseases such as dengue and highlighted the threat posed by strong winds, dust storms and hailstorms to seasonal crops, vegetables and orchards.
The department advised farmers to take protective measures for standing crops and urged authorities to prepare for weather-related challenges. It also recommended securing billboards and strengthening protection for solar energy installations in view of the increasing frequency of severe windstorms.
The PMD added that while above-normal temperatures may lead to intermittent heat stress, particularly in the plains of southern Punjab and Sindh, normal to slightly above-normal rainfall in northern mountainous areas could help moderate the intensity of heatwave conditions there.
