Petrol Down by Rs74 in Pakistan, But How Long Will the Relief Last?

A sharp Rs74 per litre drop in petrol prices has brought immediate relief to consumers across Pakistan, but energy experts warn the benefit may be temporary due to ongoing disruptions in global oil production and supply chains.

According to analysts, the global energy sector remains under severe pressure after oil wells were shut down, refineries damaged, and transportation networks disrupted by conflict. The impact of these setbacks could continue for years, limiting the chances of long-term fuel price stability.

Experts explain that oil wells cannot simply be turned off and on like a tap. When production stops, changes in underground pressure and temperature can cause heavy compounds known as asphaltenes to solidify inside pipelines and rock formations. This can make restarting production both difficult and expensive.

Industry specialists say wells closed for less than eight weeks can often be restored, although at significant cost. However, wells shut for six months or longer may require extensive repairs, while some inactive for more than a year can become permanently unusable.

The recent conflict reportedly damaged more than 80 energy facilities, with reconstruction costs estimated at over $34 billion. Energy analysts believe it could take up to two years for affected infrastructure to fully recover.

Iran’s energy sector has been among the hardest hit. Reports indicate that export operations at Kharg Island, responsible for around 90 percent of Iran’s oil exports, were severely disrupted, forcing millions of barrels of crude into storage. Production at the South Pars gas field was also affected, reducing national gas output and impacting refinery operations.

The crisis has extended beyond Iran. Energy facilities in Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, have also faced disruptions, while shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz reportedly fell sharply during the conflict.

Although ports are reopening and restrictions are gradually easing, experts caution that restoring damaged facilities and bringing oil production back to normal will take considerable time. As a result, they believe global crude prices are unlikely to return quickly to pre-crisis levels, meaning the current fuel price relief in Pakistan may not last for long.