Brent crude rose nearly 9% in Asian trading to exceed $100 per barrel, even after all 31 IEA member nations committed to releasing 400 million barrels of oil—more than double the previous record set in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Iran, meanwhile, warned that oil prices could reach $200 per barrel as attacks on ships intensify in the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping lane through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes. An IRGC spokesperson said, “You will not be able to artificially lower the price of oil. Expect oil at $200 per barrel, as the price of oil depends on regional security, and you are the main source of insecurity in the region.”
The Strait of Hormuz, deep enough for the world’s largest crude tankers, is critical to the global economy and is used by major Middle Eastern producers including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Any disruption here can cause significant volatility in oil markets.
Traders continue to price in risks of prolonged supply disruption, keeping global oil markets highly volatile since the US and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28. Brent crude briefly touched nearly $120 per barrel earlier this week.
The impact is being felt worldwide: in the US, the American Automobile Association (AAA) reported that petrol prices surpassed $3.50 per gallon on Tuesday. Meanwhile, drivers in the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam faced long queues at petrol stations as fuel supply tightened.
In response, Thai authorities urged most government agencies to adopt work-from-home arrangements to reduce energy consumption, following similar strategies implemented by other countries.
The situation underscores the sensitivity of global oil markets to Middle East tensions, where geopolitical risks can outweigh even the largest coordinated efforts to stabilize supply.
